A comparative study between Panel data models to estimate public transport demand between the city of Damascus and its suburbs

Abstract

Accurate and correct estimation of the transport demand is the main input of transport planning process and making right decisions on the policies of developing transport system. Which would mitigate the negative effects of the transport movement represented by traffic congestion, environmental pollution and traffic accidents, in addition to the imbalance between the transport demand and the infrastructure, administrative and technical of the transport system.

In order to estimate transport demand, the so-called models or mathematical models are used that link the factors affecting the transport demand as independent variables and the number of trips as a dependent variable. In this research, panel data models were used to estimate the public transport demand (minibuses and buses) on the main road connecting the city of Damascus and its suburbs. a comparison was made between these models to determine the optimal model for the relationship between the independent variables most affecting public transport trips, which are (population density, number of employees, income, car ownership, vehicle -kilometers per capita, transportation fare) and the dependent variable Y, which represents the number of daily trips between The city of Damascus and its suburbs for the period 1998-2010.

 The research concluded that the fixed effects model is the most appropriate model in estimating the number of public transport trips in the conditions of the city of Damascus and its suburbs.the results showed a significant and statistically significant effect of the population density variable, the number of employees, the income and the density of the public transport network on the number of trips, while private car ownership and transport fare had no effect on the number of public transport trips