The Dynamic Impact Of Exports On Economic Growth In Syria

Abstract

The aim of the research was to study the Dynamic Impact of Exports on Economic Growth in Syria during the period 1980-2018. The Augmented Dickey Fuller with Break Point test was used to test the presence of a Unit Root in the Variables, and based on its result, The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model Bounds Test (ARDL Bounds Test approach) was used to test the existence of the Cointegration Relationship in the long term, and Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to test the existence of the Cointegration Relationship in the short term. The results of the ARDL Bounds Test approach indicated the existence of a long-term Cointegration Relationship in Syria during the study period between Exports, Human Capital, Inflation Rate and Total Government Consumption on the one hand, and Economic Growth on the other hand. An increase in Exports in Syria during the period 1980-2018 by 1% in the long term leads to an increase in Economic Growth by 0.18%. The results of the Error Correction Model also indicated the existence of a short-term Co-integration Relationship in Syria during the period 1980-2018 between Exports, Human Capital, Inflation Rate, and Total Government Consumption on the one hand, and Economic Growth on the other hand. An increase in Exports in the previous year by about 1% leads to an increase in Economic Growth in the current year by about 0.23%. It can be concluded from these results that there is an Equilibrium Relationship in the short and long term in Syria during the period 1980-2018 between Exports, Human Capital, Inflation Rate, and Total Government Consumption on the one hand, and Economic Growth on the other hand. Exports also play a positive Role in Economic Growth and are considered one of the sources of Economic Growth in Syria in the short and long term, which supports the realization of the Hypothesis of Exports Lead Growth (ELG). Imbalances that occur in the short term in Economic Growth are corrected at 52.5% annually, meaning that the adjustment process takes place relatively quickly.