Using the Box-Jenkins methodology To analyze and forecast the general trend of the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans (An applied study on private banks in the Syrian Arab Republic) For the period 2009-2018

Abstract

Banks are formed in general and private an important space in the economic life of countries, and hence the banking performance is of great importance to strengthen the financial system, Since loans are considered the largest item in the bank’s assets and the most exposed to risk accordingly, loans are considered as an indicator of the efficiency of the bank’s performance, negatively or positively

Based on the above, a study of the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans granted in banks is considered one of the most important indicators of the efficiency of the banking industry, Therefore, the importance of this research came in proposing a mathematical model that enables those interested to study the general trend of this ratio and to find the best model for forecasting using the Box Jenkins method. In the analysis of time series to study the movement of the ratio of non-performing loans to total loans, especially in private banks in the Syrian Arab Republic.