Building a Complete Life Table in Syria for Male & Female by using continuous probability Gompertz Distribution

Abstract

An attempt was made to construct a complete life table for the Syrian population  for the period extending from 1926 to 2026, a time span of one hundred years, separately for males and females. This was done by relying on the estimated death probabilities from cumulative mortality function using the continuous Gompertz probability distribution in two cases. A standard estimate of the Gompertz distribution parameters was first obtained for both males and females using the nonlinear least squares method to the survival function, and then transforming it into a linear form. The cumulative actual death probabilities were then used in the estimation, calculated based on the number of actual deaths obtained from the Geo-rank[1] website.

The goodness of fit of Gompertz distribution to the estimated death probabilities was verified using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test and a PP plot. The estimated death probabilities were adjusted using the method described in detail in the applied section of the research, considering that the death probabilities used in the life table are non-probable. The adjusted death probabilities were then used as a basis for constructing the complete life table, following the life table functions explained in the theoretical section of the study.

The results showed that life expectancy at birth reached (70.14872) years for males and (76.63689) years for females. The findings also indicated an effect of age and the nature of the Gompertz distribution on the central death rate and life expectancy. The Gompertz distribution showed a decrease in death probabilities after age 65 compared to actual death probabilities for both males and females, while death probabilities increased after age 95 compared to actual death probabilities for both sexes

[1] https://georank.org/life-expectancy/syria#lifeExpectancyCalculator ⁠