The future prediction of the output indicators of the lentils in the first stability area in Al-Hasakah Governorate using the ARIMA model

Abstract

     The research aims to analyze the time chain analysis of the production of lentils in the first stability area of Hasaka Governorate during  1990-2019 for an assessment of a model that helps to predict the productive policies for this strategic crop using the BOX-Jenkins and ARIMA models, which combine self-regression and average movement for the time series, which is characterized by high and high flexibility in time chain analysis. The statistical methods for time chains, And stabilize tests using the ADF Diki-Fuller test, using the ACF self-linked function, and self partial PACF. It turns out that the model (0.1,2) (0.1,0) (1,1,0) (1,1.0) is the best model for predicting the output indicators of the lentils in the first stability area in Al-

Hasaka Governorate, where standard statistical tests were used Akiki AIC to compare the forms and choose the form that carries less value for this standard. There is a 12.31% increase in lentils in 2028, compared with 2019, and the production of alleged lentils in the study area is expected to increase by 13.60% in 2028 compared to 2019, The research recommends the need to expand into an area of lentils in the first stability area in Al-Hasakah Governorate and adopt its results and the approved formula for predicting by the relevant authorities to adopt the appropriate scientific method.