An analytical study of land use in conditions of climate change in the Arab world

Abstract

The research mainly aimed to conduct a standard analysis of land uses in order to determine the relationship between land uses and climate changes in the Arab world during the period extending from 2000 to 2020. Therefore, remote sensing technologies and geographic information systems were used to determine the points of forests, pastures, and seasonal rain-fed crops that were most affected. climate change, especially the frequency of rainfall,  Therefore, climate data on the rainfall rate was collected at those points, and secondary data on land use was collected, such as the area of forests, the area of pastures, and the area of rain-fed seasonal crops, which were obtained from the annual statistics book issued by the Arab Organization for Agricultural Development, and the data was entered into Eviews 12

statistical program to study the stability of time series and the relationship between the studied variables and find the most appropriate standard model to estimate the predictive equation.

The results showed the importance of building standard models based on remote sensing technologies and geographic information systems in land use analysis, in order to determine the relationship between land use and climate changes in a real and logical manner. The research concluded that the ARDL model is optimal for determining the relationship between the study variables, which led to the absence of A co-integration relationship between the area of forests and the rate of rainfall, and the same applies to pastures. On the other hand, there is a co-integration relationship between the area of rain-fed seasonal crops and the rate of rainfall, at the points of distribution of those crops that represent the Arab world, there was a general (negative) effect represented by the inverse effect of the rainfall rate (Rscr) on the area of rain-fed seasonal crops (SCR), and this is what the long-term relationship expressed. There was also a seasonal (fluctuating) effect within the framework of the short-term relationship, as the effect of the rate Rainfall (Rscr) in the area of seasonal rain crops (SCR) is inversely/directly, and based on it, the area of seasonal rain crops was predicted for the years 2027 and 2030, which were estimated at approximately 1936.20 and 2160.77 thousand hectares in the Arab world.